FUND FLAVOUR
October 2018
Sector Mutual Funds…
Sector
funds and thematic funds belong to the category of equity mutual funds. These
funds are a stark contrast to diversified equity funds. Sector funds focus on
specific sectors or industry like banking, pharmaceuticals, information
technology, infrastructure, real estate, energy, etc. Thematic funds, on the
other hand, invest in stocks which are well-defined around a particular
opportunity. These might look similar to sector funds but may consist of
several sectors. You may perceive these to be much more diversified than sector
funds because they invest in a theme (sectors associated with the theme), e.g.
a thematic consumption fund may invest in sectors as diverse as automobiles,
consumer durables, FMCG, financial services, media etc.
… a market performer?
The market is an aggregation of all the
sectors – over any given period of time, some sectors will outperform
the market and some sectors will underperform. No sector has been able to beat
Nifty consistently over the last 5 years. If you are investing in sectoral
mutual funds, there will be years in which your fund will underperform and
there will be years in which you will get blockbuster returns. You need to have
high risk appetite for sectoral mutual funds. When evaluating sectoral mutual
fund performances, you should compare your fund’s performance with the scheme
benchmark (as mentioned in the Scheme Information Document or SID) and not with
Sensex, Nifty or other broader market indices. You should not look at year on
year returns in sectoral mutual funds – rather you should focus on point to
point return over your investment tenor. The performance of your sectoral
mutual fund will depend on the sector’s performance. Relative performances of
different sectors depend on stages of investment cycles (bull market and bear
market), economic conditions (interest rates, foreign exchange rates etc.),
political developments etc. For example, cyclical sectors perform well in bull
markets (e.g. banks outperformed in 2014 and 2017) while defensive sectors
(e.g. Pharmaceuticals, FMCG etc.) tend to outperform cyclical sectors and the
market in bear markets. In India, generally, share prices of banks rise when interest
rates fall, however, the opposite is true in the US. Export oriented sectors
will be hurt by INR appreciating versus USD, while domestic sectors may benefit
from INR appreciation. Oil exploration companies will benefit from rise in
crude oil prices, while refineries and companies which depend on oil imports
will be hurt by rising crude prices. Some sectors like banks and
pharmaceuticals are subject to regulatory risks – favourable regulation changes
benefit these sectors while unfavorable ones hurt them. Sectors like
infrastructure benefit from favourable Government policies and vice versa.
Therefore, when you are investing in a sectoral mutual fund, you should be
aware of risk factors associated with the sector and take an informed decision.
Arguments in favour…
If
you invest your money in a sector that has high-growth potential, you will
notice that the funds tend to increase substantially in price when the product
demand is high. So, if the growth trend for that particular sector or theme predicts
continual demand, then your investment is a good one.
It is true that
different sectors outperform or underperform in different market conditions,
but it is also true that over long investment tenures certain sectors have
outperformed the market. Even in a matured market like the US, certain sectors
have outperformed the S&P 500 over a 10 to 20 year period. In India certain
sectors have outperformed not just the Nifty 50 but the broader Nifty 500, over
a 10 year period. By investing in these sectors, through sectoral mutual funds,
you could have got market beating returns. Timing is not all important
in sector funds – sectoral mutual funds
can be great long term investment options. If you have a medium term
investment tenor like 3 to 5 years or so, then sectoral mutual funds can be
risky but over very long tenors, sectoral mutual funds can enhance your
portfolio returns.
…and against
While
higher growth in the chosen sector represents good news for the investor, a
downturn in the sector represents heavy losses. The reason behind this is the
lack of diversification in holdings. Investing in a sector fund is equivalent
to putting all of one’s eggs in one basket; if the basket were to fall, the
eggs would all break. Thematic funds, although more diversified than sector
funds, are also dependent entirely on one particular theme.
The
most basic argument is that different sectors find favour in different market
conditions. It is difficult for retail investors to guess, which sector will
outperform in the near to medium term.
The
other argument against sectoral mutual funds is that, retail mutual fund
investors select funds mostly on the basis of past performance, i.e. they tend
to invest in mutual funds which have given high returns in the last one or two
years. This investment strategy may backfire with sectoral mutual funds because
the sectors which gave high returns may quickly run out of steam and leave
retail investors stranded. This can happen at bull market peaks like what
happened with certain sectors in 2008 or when institutional investors rotate
sectors by booking profits in stocks where they got high returns. Some sectors
may go out of favour due to regulatory and political changes, which are outside
the control of companies, e.g. pharmaceuticals over the last 2 years due to
regulatory changes in the US. Overcoming regulatory challenges and changes in
political scenario may take a long time.
The strongest
argument against sectoral mutual funds is information or knowledge gap between the fund manager and an
average retail investor. Fund managers of diversified equity mutual fund
schemes are required to deliver alphas (higher returns than benchmark) and
they do this by being over-weight / under-weight on sector allocations versus the benchmark and
through stock selection.
Sector Mutual Funds – the caveats
If
you believe that sector funds are the proverbial pot at the end of the rainbow
in the mutual fund arena, then keep this in mind.
· Like
any other investment, you need to have clear financial goals for investing in
sectoral mutual funds. You should not invest in sectoral mutual funds, simply
because you have funds to invest and want to make a quick profit. Chasing quick
profits in sectoral funds can burn your pocket, because timing can go horribly
wrong with these funds.
· You
need to have a high risk appetite. Some sector funds can underperform for a
long time. You need to be patient for the sector to recover and your fund to
deliver returns. You should allocate only your highest risk capital to
sectoral mutual funds. Risk capital is the money, which you do not need to
access for liquidity needs in the short to intermediate term – you should have
sufficient capital in other investment options for your short to intermediate
term liquidity needs.
· You
should have an absolute returns mindset when investing in sectoral mutual
funds. You should not worry about year on year volatility. When you reach your
target absolute returns, you should exit the investment. Do not worry about
leaving money on the table because the returns may quickly fizzle out, if the
sector goes out of favor in the market.
· Investment in equity mutual funds should be made with at least a 5 year
horizon. Much can change within one sector which can lead to underperformance
of a sectoral fund. Even a skilled fund manager will not be able to do much if
restricted to a sector with significant headwinds and not allowed to switch to
a sector with tailwinds. This is captured very well in Warren Buffet words, “Good jockeys will do well on good horses,
but not on broken-down”
Are Sector Funds right for you?
You have heard
that market timing rarely pays, but occasionally you would at least like the
flexibility to be more tactical with your portfolio picks. Sector funds could
be the tool to use, but are they worth the risk? The answer depends on how
actively you follow the market and what you already own. You have to ask
yourself why you want to buy into that particular sector, why you believe it is
likely to outperform, and what your criteria are for getting rid of it. If you
cannot answer those questions, you probably should not own it. Sectoral funds
are meant for a sophisticated investor who can assess the structural movements
in the particular sector. Sectoral funds are hyper sensitive to events such as
government actions or regulatory changes. So, importance of timing the market
is high. If you intend to invest in sectoral funds then you must study and
research the sector well. Common man caveat emptor!
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